The Gardner Report | Colorado Edition

The following analysis of the Metro Denver and Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW


Colorado added 62,000 new jobs over the past 12 months, an increase of 2.4% over this time last year. All of the metropolitan markets included in this report saw annual employment growth, with substantial growth in Boulder (4.7%) and Fort Collins (+4.1%), and more modest growth in Grand Junction (0.3%).

In May, the unemployment rate in the state was 2.3%, matching the prior month and down 3.4% from a year ago. The lowest unemployment rate was in Fort Collins at just 2.0%. The highest rate was in Grand Junction, though it was still a relatively low 3.3%. It is reasonable to expect these markets will see above-average wage growth given the tight labor market.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY


  • There were 17,581 home sales during the first quarter of 2017, a solid annual increase of 3.9% over the first quarter of 2016.
  • Jefferson County saw sales grow at the fastest rate over the past 12 months, with a 9.4% increase. There was also an impressive increase in Douglas County (+6.3%).  More modest sales growth was seen in Denver and Weld Counties.
  • Even with the rise in sales, listing activity is still running at well below historic averages, with the total number of homes for sale in the second quarter 7.6% below a year ago.
  • Sales growth continues to trend higher, but inventory levels remain well below where they need to be to satisfy demand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HOME PRICES


  • Due to solid demand, home prices continue to rise with average prices up by 8.5% year-over-year to an average across the region of $438,980.
  • Boulder County saw slower appreciation in home values, but the trend is still positive.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Denver and Weld Counties, where prices rose by 12.4% and 10.6% respectively.
  • Economic growth is driving job growth, which is driving housing demand. Given the relative shortage of homes for sale, expect to see home prices continue to appreciate at above-average rates at least through the rest of the year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET


  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by three days when compared to the second quarter of 2016.
  • Homes in all counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County stood out as it took an average of only 11 days to sell a home.
  • During the second quarter, it took an average of just 17 days to sell a home. This is down by a substantial 13 days compared to the first quarter of this year.
  • The takeaway here is that demand remains robust as evidenced by the remarkably short amount of time that it is taking to sell a home.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

After the second quarter of 2017, I have moved the needle even farther in favor of sellers. Mortgage rates remain very competitive and, with the specter of lending standards easing a little, demand will remain robust, which will be reflected in rising home values.

 

 

 

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER


Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
Posted on August 3, 2017 at 3:01 pm
Natalie Davis | Category: Colorado Homes, Economic Update, Fort Collins, Fort Collins Real Estate, Greeley, Greeley Real Estate, Home Buying, Larimer County, Loveland, Loveland Real Estate, Luxury Real Estate, Matthew Gardner Report, METRO DENVER, Natalie Davis Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, REALTOR, Selling a Home, Weld County, Windsor Real Estate

Fort Collins Real Estate vs. Boulder Real Estate

Facts about the Northern Colorado Real Estate Market

Weekly Fun Facts

The Next Boulder?

Fort Collins Real Estate vs. Boulder Real Estate | The hottest question we get in Northern Colorado is this “do you think Fort Collins is the next Boulder?”

Let’s look closely at that question and start with what is similar. They are both beautiful college towns nestled against the foothills. They both have affordability issues which push real estate buyers to satellite communities (what is happening is Wellington is not unlike what happened in Louisville).

Yet there are differences at a fundamental level that will forever keep these two places very different from each other. For example the average Household Income in Boulder is 60% higher than Fort Collins. Here is another big deal, Boulder is only half the size of Fort Collins (25 square miles versus 57 square miles). And get this, the City of Boulder owns 71 square miles of open space in and around the City.

Essentially Boulder is a small island surrounded by an ocean of open space inhabited by very high income-earners. That is why the average price of a single family home in Boulder is now over $1 million.

We put together a short video which shows you more detail about this hot question. You can watch it here:

Posted on February 24, 2017 at 9:35 am
Natalie Davis | Category: Boulder, Colorado Homes, CSU, CU Boulder, Fort Collins, Greeley, Home Buying, Larimer County, Loveland, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling a Home | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Northern Colorado Economic Forecast for 2017

2017 Crystal Ball

2017 Crystal Ball

Last week Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner joined us for our annual Market Forecast events in Northern Colorado.

Here are some of the big takeaways that we shared:

  • Interest rates will increase to 4.6% by the end of the year
  • First-time buyers are back and will make up 47% of all buyers in 2017
  • Inventory will remain at record lows and will continue to drive up prices
  • Appreciation is expected to be between 9% and 7% accross our Front Range markets
  • Home builders will get creative in order to hit lower price points – we will see more “tiny homes” and more homes without basements

Click HERE to see Matthew Gardner’s infographic on the 2017 Forecast.

Posted on January 28, 2017 at 7:42 pm
Natalie Davis | Category: Fort Collins, Greeley, Home Buying, Larimer County, Loveland, Luxury Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling a Home, Seniors Real Estate Specialist (SRES), Weld County | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2016 Northern Colorado Stats

Weekly Fun Facts - Natalie Davis

Fun Facts – Natalie Davis

Did You Know?

Here are some fun “Did You Know?” stats as we wrap up 2016 (arguably one of the most fascinating years in the history of Northern Colorado Real Estate)

  • This year the median price of a home supassed…
  • $350,000 in Fort Collins
  • $300,000 in Loveland
  • $250,000 in Greeley
  • 2,281 homes were sold in Fort Collins this year
  • That’s 133 fewer than last year
  • Windsor had 197 more home sales than last year
  • The only major market with considerably more sales than 2015
  • Today, as we finish 2016, there are only 10 single family homes on the market in Fort Collins priced under $300,000.

Happy New Year to all of you. Be sure to register for our 2017 Real Estate Market Forecast if you want to see insightful information about our market and hear some entertaining real estate stories. www.windermereforecast.com

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Register for our annual Real Estate Market Forecast events! We will be in Denver January 18th and in Fort Collins January 19th starting at 5:30 pm.. Back by popular demand is our Cheif Economist Matthew Gardner. Seating is limited.

Sign up at www.windermereforecast.com

Posted on December 30, 2016 at 9:30 am
Natalie Davis | Category: Fort Collins, Greeley, Home Buying, Larimer County, Loveland, Luxury Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling a Home, Weld County

Seasonal Slowdown

 

Weekly Fun Facts

Weekly Fun Facts

August marks the end of the busy real estate selling season and the beginning of the traditional seasonal slowdown in our market.

The four months of April, May, June and July tend to produce 45% of the year's total sales. This is based on looking back at 5 years of data.

If 2016 holds true to form, the next five months from now until the end of the year will be progressively slower.

No surprise that December tends to be the slowest month with a third of the number of sales compared to a typical July.

Here's what we will be watching closely over the next few months – is this year's seasonal slowdown "normal", or, because the market has been so hot this year, is it breaking traditional trends.

We will be sure to keep you informed!

 

Contact Natalie Davis to find out what the low rates have done to the value of your home. She will put together an Equity Snapshot which will show you, in detail, what your home is worth in today's market. It's valuable information to have whether you are thinking of selling or not.  970-281-5321

Posted on July 30, 2016 at 10:04 am
Natalie Davis | Category: Home Buying, Luxury Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling a Home, Seniors Real Estate Specialist (SRES) | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Weekly Fun Facts

Facts about the Northern Colorado Real Estate Market

Weekly Fun Facts

  
Inventory Mis-Match

Our market is under-supplied. Plain and simple. There is a 1 to 2-month supply of homes across Northern Colorado. A balanced market would have 6 months.

So, home builders to the rescue right? Not so fast. Home builders, for various reasons, have a very hard time matching the market.

75% of sales in Northern Colorado are below $400,000. Only 16% of new home inventory in Northern Colorado is below $400,000. That is a mis-match.

Builders are faced with high land costs, high materials cost, high labor costs, high permitting costs and high water costs. It's pretty much impossible, in most parts of our market, to deliver a new home under $400,000.

So, condominiums to the rescue right? Not so fast. Because of onerous construction defect laws, developers do not want to build multi-family, for sale product. It's too risky. They'd rather build apartments.

Our market is under-supplied. Plain and simple.

This is really good news if you are a seller who wants to move up. This is especially good news if you are a seller of a condominium.

Contact us to find out what our under-supplied market has done to the value of your home. We'll put together an Equity Snapshot which will show you, in detail, what your home is worth in today's market. It's valuable information to have whether you are thinking of selling or not.  970-281-5321

 
Posted on July 20, 2016 at 9:15 am
Natalie Davis | Category: Home Buying, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling a Home | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Weekly Fun Facts

Weekly Fun Facts

Weekly Fun Facts


007

Just for fun let's take a walk down memory lane and look at 2007 average prices in Northern Colorado.

  • Fort Collins = $238,000
  • Loveland = $229,900
  • Greeley = $151,500

What are they today and how much have they increased?

  • Fort Collins = $348,000 (46% higher)
  • Loveland = $345,000 (50% higher)
  • Greeley = $248,000 (64% higher)

 

Posted on June 23, 2016 at 11:02 am
Natalie Davis | Category: Colorado Homes, Home Buying, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling a Home

Inventory Mismatch

 

One of the many interesting dynamics in our Northern Colorado market is the mismatch between inventory and sales.

 

Meaning, there isn't enough of what most people want.


Inventory vs Sales for homes in Northern ColoradoCheck this out, year to date for Northern Colorado:

Under $300K = 1,123 homes sold/87 currently for sale 

$300K to $500K = 1,106 homes sold/358 currently for sale

$500K to $1M = 310 homes sold/301 currently for sale

Over $1M = 13 homes sold/54 currently for sale

By the way, this means that is an incredible opportunity for the move up buyer. Contact us to see what your home is worth in today's market.

Posted on June 17, 2016 at 4:33 pm
Natalie Davis | Category: Home Buying, Luxury Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling a Home | Tagged , , ,

Northern Colorado’s Luxury Market

Let's have some fun with 5 Fascinating Facts about the Luxury Market in Northern Colorado (homes priced over $700,000):Colorado Luxury Report

  • Luxury homes represent 19% of all available inventory
  • Luxury homes represent 3% of all closed sales
  • The luxury market has 11 months of inventory
  • The average sales to list price for a luxury home is 97%
  • The average days on market for a luxury home is 132 days

Hot off the press is our brand new Luxury Market Report. It's 12 pages of fun facts, charts, graphs and insights into the $700,000-plus market in Northern Colorado. This is a must-have resource.

Simply email nataliedavis@windermere.com and we will get one in your hands right away.

Posted on June 15, 2016 at 4:30 pm
Natalie Davis | Category: Colorado Homes, Home Buying, Luxury Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling a Home, Seniors Real Estate Specialist (SRES) | Tagged , , , , , ,