The Gardner Report – Colorado Real Estate Market Update (Q1 2018)

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

It’s good news for the state of Colorado, which saw annual employment growth in all of the metropolitan markets included in this report. The state added 63,400 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, an impressive growth rate of 2.4%. Colorado has been adding an average of 5,300 new jobs per month for the past year, and I anticipate that this growth rate will continue through the balance of 2018.

In February, the unemployment rate in Colorado was 3.0%—a level that has held steady for the past six months. Unemployment has dropped in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Denver, where 3.1% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 4.6%.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the first quarter of 2018, there were 11,173 home sales—a drop of 5.6% when compared to the first quarter of 2017.
  • With an increase of 5.3%, home sales rose the fastest in Boulder County, as compared to first quarter of last year. There was also a modest sales increase of 1.2% in Larimer County. Sales fell in all the other counties contained within this report.
  • Home sales continue to slow due to low inventory levels, which were down 5.7% compared to a year ago.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth continues to stagnate due to the lack of homes for sale.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Strong economic growth, combined with limited inventory, continued to push prices higher. The average home price in the markets covered by this report was up by 11.7% year-over-year to $448,687.
  • Arapahoe County saw slower appreciation in
  • home values, but the trend is still positive and above its long-term average.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Boulder County, which saw prices rise 14.8%. Almost all other counties in this report experienced solid gains.
  • The ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists and home prices continue to appreciate at above-average rates.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by three days when compared to the first quarter of 2017.
  • Homes in all but two counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out where it took an average of just 17 days to sell a home.
  • During the first quarter, it took an average of 27 days to sell a home. That rate is down 2 days from the fourth quarter of 2017.
  • Housing demand remains strong and would-be buyers should expect to see stiff competition for well-positioned, well-priced homes.

 

 

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. In the first quarter of 2018, I have left the needle where it was in the fourth quarter of last year. Even as interest rates trend higher, it appears as if demand will continue to outweigh supply. As we head into the spring months, I had hoped to see an increase in the number of homes for sale, but so far that has not happened. As a result, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.

Posted on April 30, 2018 at 7:07 pm
Natalie Davis | Category: Colorado Homes, Economic Update, Matthew Gardner Report, METRO DENVER, Natalie Davis Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate

The Gardner Report | Colorado Edition

The following analysis of the Metro Denver and Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW


Colorado added 62,000 new jobs over the past 12 months, an increase of 2.4% over this time last year. All of the metropolitan markets included in this report saw annual employment growth, with substantial growth in Boulder (4.7%) and Fort Collins (+4.1%), and more modest growth in Grand Junction (0.3%).

In May, the unemployment rate in the state was 2.3%, matching the prior month and down 3.4% from a year ago. The lowest unemployment rate was in Fort Collins at just 2.0%. The highest rate was in Grand Junction, though it was still a relatively low 3.3%. It is reasonable to expect these markets will see above-average wage growth given the tight labor market.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY


  • There were 17,581 home sales during the first quarter of 2017, a solid annual increase of 3.9% over the first quarter of 2016.
  • Jefferson County saw sales grow at the fastest rate over the past 12 months, with a 9.4% increase. There was also an impressive increase in Douglas County (+6.3%).  More modest sales growth was seen in Denver and Weld Counties.
  • Even with the rise in sales, listing activity is still running at well below historic averages, with the total number of homes for sale in the second quarter 7.6% below a year ago.
  • Sales growth continues to trend higher, but inventory levels remain well below where they need to be to satisfy demand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HOME PRICES


  • Due to solid demand, home prices continue to rise with average prices up by 8.5% year-over-year to an average across the region of $438,980.
  • Boulder County saw slower appreciation in home values, but the trend is still positive.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Denver and Weld Counties, where prices rose by 12.4% and 10.6% respectively.
  • Economic growth is driving job growth, which is driving housing demand. Given the relative shortage of homes for sale, expect to see home prices continue to appreciate at above-average rates at least through the rest of the year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET


  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by three days when compared to the second quarter of 2016.
  • Homes in all counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County stood out as it took an average of only 11 days to sell a home.
  • During the second quarter, it took an average of just 17 days to sell a home. This is down by a substantial 13 days compared to the first quarter of this year.
  • The takeaway here is that demand remains robust as evidenced by the remarkably short amount of time that it is taking to sell a home.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

After the second quarter of 2017, I have moved the needle even farther in favor of sellers. Mortgage rates remain very competitive and, with the specter of lending standards easing a little, demand will remain robust, which will be reflected in rising home values.

 

 

 

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER


Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
Posted on August 3, 2017 at 3:01 pm
Natalie Davis | Category: Colorado Homes, Economic Update, Fort Collins, Fort Collins Real Estate, Greeley, Greeley Real Estate, Home Buying, Larimer County, Loveland, Loveland Real Estate, Luxury Real Estate, Matthew Gardner Report, METRO DENVER, Natalie Davis Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, REALTOR, Selling a Home, Weld County, Windsor Real Estate

Fort Collins Real Estate vs. Boulder Real Estate

Facts about the Northern Colorado Real Estate Market

Weekly Fun Facts

The Next Boulder?

Fort Collins Real Estate vs. Boulder Real Estate | The hottest question we get in Northern Colorado is this “do you think Fort Collins is the next Boulder?”

Let’s look closely at that question and start with what is similar. They are both beautiful college towns nestled against the foothills. They both have affordability issues which push real estate buyers to satellite communities (what is happening is Wellington is not unlike what happened in Louisville).

Yet there are differences at a fundamental level that will forever keep these two places very different from each other. For example the average Household Income in Boulder is 60% higher than Fort Collins. Here is another big deal, Boulder is only half the size of Fort Collins (25 square miles versus 57 square miles). And get this, the City of Boulder owns 71 square miles of open space in and around the City.

Essentially Boulder is a small island surrounded by an ocean of open space inhabited by very high income-earners. That is why the average price of a single family home in Boulder is now over $1 million.

We put together a short video which shows you more detail about this hot question. You can watch it here:

Posted on February 24, 2017 at 9:35 am
Natalie Davis | Category: Boulder, Colorado Homes, CSU, CU Boulder, Fort Collins, Greeley, Home Buying, Larimer County, Loveland, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling a Home | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Weekly Fun Facts

Weekly Fun Facts

Weekly Fun Facts


007

Just for fun let's take a walk down memory lane and look at 2007 average prices in Northern Colorado.

  • Fort Collins = $238,000
  • Loveland = $229,900
  • Greeley = $151,500

What are they today and how much have they increased?

  • Fort Collins = $348,000 (46% higher)
  • Loveland = $345,000 (50% higher)
  • Greeley = $248,000 (64% higher)

 

Posted on June 23, 2016 at 11:02 am
Natalie Davis | Category: Colorado Homes, Home Buying, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling a Home

Northern Colorado’s Luxury Market

Let's have some fun with 5 Fascinating Facts about the Luxury Market in Northern Colorado (homes priced over $700,000):Colorado Luxury Report

  • Luxury homes represent 19% of all available inventory
  • Luxury homes represent 3% of all closed sales
  • The luxury market has 11 months of inventory
  • The average sales to list price for a luxury home is 97%
  • The average days on market for a luxury home is 132 days

Hot off the press is our brand new Luxury Market Report. It's 12 pages of fun facts, charts, graphs and insights into the $700,000-plus market in Northern Colorado. This is a must-have resource.

Simply email nataliedavis@windermere.com and we will get one in your hands right away.

Posted on June 15, 2016 at 4:30 pm
Natalie Davis | Category: Colorado Homes, Home Buying, Luxury Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling a Home, Seniors Real Estate Specialist (SRES) | Tagged , , , , , ,